2024, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (36): 5799-5804

Influencing factors of adjacent vertebral refracture in elderly female patients with osteoporotic vertebral compression fracture and construction of a prediction model based on Nomogram

Wang Xiaopeng, Zhong Rong, Zhong Yan, Lin Feng, Ye Shuxi   

Abstract: BACKGROUND: There have been many studies on adjacent vertebral fractures in elderly female patients with osteoporotic vertebral compression fractures, but their related risk factors are still in debate. There are also few studies on how to intuitively present their risks for clinical application.
OBJECTIVE: To analyze the risk factors of adjacent vertebral refracture in senile women with osteoporotic vertebral compression fracture and construct a Nomogram prediction model.
METHODS: A total of 268 elderly female patients with osteoporotic vertebral compression fracture who came to Ganzhou People’s Hospital for treatment from January 2018 to November 2022 were selected and divided into study group (adjacent vertebral refracture, n=31) and control group (no adjacent vertebral refracture, n=237) according to whether adjacent vertebral refracture occurred 3 months after percutaneous vertebroplasty. General clinical data were compared between the two groups. Multivariate Logistic regression analysis was conducted to analyze the independent risk factors of adjacent vertebral refracture in elderly women with osteoporotic vertebral compression fracture. A Nomogram prediction model was constructed by R software “rms” package.
RESULTS AND CONCLUSION: (1) There were statistically significant differences in age, menopause age, body mass index, fracture history, number of fractured vertebra before surgery, bone cement leakage, bone density, postoperative kyphotic deformity angle, and preoperative Oswestry disability index between the two groups (P < 0.05). (2) Multivariate logistic regression analysis results showed that age (> 69 years old), menopause age (≤ 51 years old), body mass index (> 24.7 kg/m2), fracture history (presence), number of fractured vertebra before surgery (≥ 2), and postoperative kyphotic deformity angle (> 13°) were independent risk factors for adjacent vertebral refracture in elderly female osteoporotic vertebral compression fracture patients (P < 0.05). (3) Nomogram prediction model decision curve results displayed that when the risk threshold was > 0.09, this prediction model provided significant additional clinical net benefit. (4) These findings indicate that older age, lower menopause age, higher body mass index, history of fracture, more vertebra fractures before surgery, and larger kyphosis angle after surgery are independent factors for adjacent vertebral refracture in elderly women with osteoporotic vertebral compression fracture. This Nomogram prediction model will provide important strategic guidance for the prevention and treatment of adjacent vertebral refracture in elderly women with osteoporotic vertebral compression fracture.

Key words: osteoporosis, osteoporotic vertebral compression fracture, female, adjacent vertebral refracture, influencing factor, nomogram